Obama Polls: Election 08 Obama v McCain

For the Political Cartoon of the Day I think it appropriate to go with the following cartoon which deals with the concept of electronic voting in the upcoming election. After today I am going to start dealing with some of the issues surrounding the election itself instead of just the candidates. I think this political cartoon shows what is at the heart of the election but by the voting population is not paid really any attention. Soon I will get back discussing the politicians and their ideals and ideas but for now I will just discuss the current issue of polls surrounding the candidates and how we are getting a little carried away and then the Electronic Voting Issues for a few Days. I will also be doing a post or two of just some funny and interesting Political Cartoons and Videos of the 2008 Elections. Today though we are just going to deal with the overwhelming number of polls and what exactly to they really mean?

“It’s increasingly clear from our ‘poll of polls’ average that Sen. Obama holds a small advantage over Sen. McCain as we head into the general election,” says CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. “Time will tell whether Obama's lead is a temporary bounce resulting from the end of the Democratic nomination fight, or whether it is a more permanent reflection of voters’ desire for change this year.”

The latest edition of the CNN Poll of Polls is an average of four new national surveys, a Gallup poll taken from June 9-12, an NBC/Wall Street Journal survey conducted from June 6-9, a Diageo/Hotline poll taken from June 5-8, and our own CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey conducted from June 4-5. The CNN Poll of Polls does not have a sampling error. Which in my opinion is kind of hard to understand considering my stats background.

Presumptive Democratic nominee Obama holds a six point lead over his Republican counterpart McCain a new CBS News poll finds. Obama leads McCain 48 percent to 42 percent among registered voters, with 6 percent of respondents undecided.

The poll contains troubling signs for Obama as he looks to mobilize the Democratic Party behind him following his long and sometimes bitter battle with Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination, however.

So what polls are to be trusted? We know that with the White Male vote McCaine leads Obama by double digits and is also ahead of Obama in the Suburban Moms demographic while Obama leads in the Lation, Young Voters, and overall Women Demographic. All of this information leads to inconclusive evidence seemingly pointing us to the conclusion that as of yet we have not decided what we want as a country. We also know that 68% of all previous Clinton voters are saying they will vote Obama in the upcoming election while nearly 10 % are undecided and the rest say they will vote for McCain.

Twelve percent of Democrats say they will support McCain in the general election. That's higher than the 8 percent of Democrats who defected to President Bush in 2004. Nearly a quarter of Clinton supporters say they will back McCain instead of Obama in the general election.

McCain leads Obama by 8 points among registered independent voters, considered a key voting block in November. The Arizona senator leads Obama 46 percent to 38 percent, with 11 percent of respondents undecided.

And overall we know that the margin of error in a complete poll still overlaps leading to a direct tie between the two candidates in terms of the upcoming election. This year seems to show though that we are beginning to try a predict a little too much when we really don't have the information necessary to make any kind of informed decision, we still have not heard the two in a head to head debate with a widely publicized and distribution model and we still do not know at what point the two candidates are going to pick their running mates. Although many voters feel that the running mate does not bear too much weight on their decision for president I think that this year we could see a large change in that viewpoint if Obama were to pick Hillary as a running mate or McCain to pick another female as well. I also think it is quite plausible that McCain could pick somebody from the state of Alaska as his running mate for reasons of shared interest with the Bush Administration in terms of drilling, ecspecially with the rising price of gasoline in this country.

Obama beating Hillary, McCain Leads In Texas & Cartoon of the Day

In the Political Cartoon of the day we stray a little from the current events at hand and just let the Political Cartoon Itself make up for the lack of relevancy. Nothing better than a little nude Cartoon Bush to get a little laugh out of you. Now to some relevant issues.

In Houston on Thursday, McCain said he can pull conservative voters to his side for the general election because he offers clear policy differences with Clinton and Obama.

For instance, he remarked, "we are succeeding in Iraq, something that Senator Obama and Senator Clinton won't acknowledge."

As the Arizona senator acknowledged, he is still working on winning his party's nomination and the backing of many conservatives, who disagree with his push for earned citizenship opportunities for illegal immigrants, endorsement of campaign finance reforms and other issues.

Huckabee told a Waco audience he is the only true conservative in the race, and the only major candidate of either party "without a Washington address." Though trailing McCain badly in the national convention delegate count, Huckabee said he is not about to give up.

"You can beat me but you can't make me quit," Huckabee said with a defiant smile.

Clinton had held a lead in the race that evaporated in the past several weeks.

One area where she apparently bounced back in the past month was in fundraising. Obama shocked her in January by raising $36 million to her $14 million. Clinton aides told The Associated Press on Thursday that Clinton raised $35 million in February. Obama's campaign said he had raised more than $50 million in February, but did not release the amount.

"It was incredibly gratifying to see people come forth with this vote of confidence in me," Clinton told reporters in Hanging Rock, Ohio. "Obviously this is a tremendous benefit to my campaign."

The money could give Clinton the ability to soldier on even if Texas is a setback for her in the fight for delegates to the national nominating convention.

Clinton was in Houston on Thursday night for an energy summit.

Momentum is clearly on Obama's side, though. A Texas Democratic superdelegate — state Rep. Senfronia Thompson of Houston — Thursday switched her support from Clinton to Obama.

Pollster John Zogby said the statistics that really show the momentum for Obama is the timing of when people made up their mind on how to vote. He said Clinton leads "substantially" among those who made up their minds more than a month ago, but Obama leads almost "two-to-one" among those who made up their minds recently.

Earlier in the day, Obama held a town hall meeting in Austin to talk about the economy, which he said is on the brink of a recession.

"This was not an inevitable part of the business cycle," Obama said. "It was a failure of leadership in Washington — a Washington where George Bush hands out billions of tax cuts to the wealthiest few for eight long years, and John McCain promises to make those same tax cuts permanent."

Obama also criticized McCain's statements about staying in Iraq for 100 years, saying that would cost trillions of dollars. Obama favors a total pullout from Iraq within a year after taking office.

McCain responded in Houston by saying his comments about Iraq have been taken out of context. He said he was talking about a military presence to guarantee stability, not an ongoing war.

"No American argues against our military presence in Korea or Japan or Germany or Kuwait or other places, or Turkey, because America is not receiving casualties," McCain said. "I think, generally speaking, we have a more secure world thanks to American presence, particularly in Asia, by the way, as we see the rising influence of China."

Democratic presidential contender Barack Obama appears to be consolidating a lead over Hillary Rodham Clinton among most constituent groups in Texas except Hispanics, according to a new tracking poll.

The survey found Obama leading 48.2 percent to 41.7 percent over Clinton statewide. The poll, conducted Tuesday through Thursday for the Houston Chronicle, Reuters and C-SPAN by Zogby International, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

On the Republican side, U.S. Sen. John McCain appears headed to victory in Texas over former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Texas congressman Ron Paul of Lake Jackson. McCain led with 53.4 percent support to Huckabee's 26.8 percent and Paul's 10.7 percent in a survey that had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. McCain led among all groups, including self-identified conservatives.

The tracking poll, which will be conducted daily until next Tuesday's election, found Obama leading with both men and women. He and Clinton were essentially tied among Anglos, but he held 84.9 percent support among blacks and she had the support of 54.9 percent of the Hispanics surveyed.

That Hispanic backing helped give Clinton a lead in South Texas of 66.7 percent. She also led in West Texas, which would include heavily Hispanic El Paso.

Obama led in every other region and was supported by about 60 percent of those surveyed in Houston and Dallas — which have more nominating delegates at stake than all of the region from San Antonio to Brownsville to El Paso.

Next Tuesday's primaries in Texas and Ohio are crucial for Clinton to keep her campaign alive in the face of Obama's surge in the past three weeks. The tracking poll in Ohio showed a close race, with Clinton leading 44.1 percent to 41.5 percent over Obama. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

Clinton Ahead in Critical Moments says Ohio Poll & Political Cartoon of the Day

In the Political Cartoon of the day we show the New and Modern Hillary Clinton ready for the Midwestern Struggle. Her new attire brought to you by Midwestern Cartoon Chic from an unknown designer in Ohio. Polls show that this new Clinton Model is working well in the Midwest, Voters seem to love the Political Cartoon Hillary more than Confrontational, Health Care Hillary. Super Delegate or not, she needs to pull a big win to even stand a chance at receiving the nomination.

Clinton drew the support of 47 percent of those surveyed in the new poll, Obama 39 percent. Yet there is a wild card in the results of this new survey: 9 percent of the likely Democratic voters surveyed said they intend to vote for former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, who has withdrawn from the race, and 4 percent were undecided.

Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York holds an eight-percentage-point advantage over Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois among likely Democratic voters in Ohio, according to the results of a new Ohio Poll this morning which arrive as welcome news for Clinton’s hopes of regaining her footing in the contest for the party’s presidential nomination.

The spread between Clinton and Obama also stands at the edges of the poll's potential 4.3 percentage-point margin of error.

In addition, while the Ohio Poll has no benchmark by which to compare Clinton's position today with her stance in recent weeks, a new Univerfsity Poll shows Clinton has lost some of the advantage she had over Obama in Ohio just two weeks ago.

Clinton has a 51-40 percentage point advantage over Obama among Ohio Democratic voters in the Quinnipiac poll released today. This compares with her 55-34 point advantage in survey run by Quinnipiac earlier this month and reported on Feb. 14. The newest Feb. 18-23 survey of 1,853 Ohio registered voters carries a possible margin of error of 2.3 percent.

The results of these Ohio polls arrive on the eve of a televised debate between Clinton and Obama in one of the states which Clinton counts on to breathe new life into her presidential campaign. Following a string of primary and caucus victories for Obama, Clinton is counting on voters in Ohio and Texas on March 4 to reaffirm her claim as a contender for the nomination. The two face each other in debate Tuesday night.

The Ohio polls suggest that Clinton might want to play the debate presidentially -- firm, but without the appearance of worry about any threat in her highly successful rival. Obama is likely to reprise his own appearance in Texas last week, playing to the same level of confidence.

The intensity of Clinton’s campaign-trail challenges to Obama in recent days is a measure of the stakes in Ohio and Texas on March 4, with Clinton counting on victories there to regain her balance in a contest for the pledged delegates to the Democratic National Convention this summer. Obama has gained a lead in that contest.

The precariousness of the primary contest in bellwether Ohio next week is born out in today’s Ohio Poll, a product of the University of Cincinnati’s polling institute. The survey was conducted from Feb. 21 through Sunday. The possible margin of error among Democrats surveyed is 4.3 percent, and among Republicans surveyed 5.5 percent.

The Ohio debate also raises the question of which Clinton will show up:

The smiling, conciliatory Clinton who debated Obama in Texas last week in a largely civil encounter in which both refrained from bitter campaign-trail rhetoric.

Or the explosive Clinton who declared, “Shame on you, Barack Obama,’’ on the road in recent days, complaining about campaign mailings which the Obama camp has sent to voters – and the derisive Clinton who mocks the platitudes of the Obama campaign as playing to some sort of “celestial-choir’’ vision of miraculous results with empty rhetoric.

Republican Sen. John McCain holds a comfortable lead among Republican voters. The Arizona senator, on track to become his party’s presidential nominee, claimed the support of 55 percent of the likely voters in Ohio’s Republican primary next week, with former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arizona claiming 20 percent.

“A variety of issues are influencing Republican primary voter decisions about the 2008 presidential race,’’ the Ohio Poll repots, “including: the economy/jobs (30 percent, homeland security/national defense (16 percent), the war in Iraq/Iraq policy (9 percent), health care/health insurance (8 percent), abortion (7 percent) and taxes (6 percent.)’’

The economy weighs heavily on the minds of Democratic voters in Ohio, the survey shows, with 41 percent saying the economy and jobs will weigh heavily in their vote, 25 percent citing health care and insurance and 25 percent the war in Iraq.