Obama versus Clinton and Clinton in 08

The benefits of having Mr. Clinton challenge Mr. Obama in the 2008 election so forcefully, over Iraq and Mr. Obama’s record and statements, they say, are worth the trade-offs of potentially overshadowing Mrs. Clinton at times, undermining his reputation as a statesman and raising the question among voters about whether they are putting him in the White House as much as her.

Advisers to Senator Hillary Clinton in the 2008 elections say they have concluded that Bill Cinton's aggressive politicking against Senator Barack Obama is resonating with voters, and they intend to keep him on the campaign trail in a major role after the South Carolina primary.

After three weeks of nearly nonstop campaigning, set off by Mrs. Clinton’s third-place finish in the Iowa caucuses, Mr. Clinton has shown as much ability as his wife — or even more — to stir public and news media skepticism about Mr. Obama’s position on Iraq and his message of nonpartisan leadership, Clinton advisers say.

They also see benefits in Mr. Clinton’s drawing the ire of the Obama camp, predicting that there will be a voter backlash against Mr. Obama if the former president looks like a victim in the cut-and-thrust of the race.

“He’s the most popular Democrat in the country; he is the most successful president in recent memory, and attacks on him by Senator Obama and his surrogates will be rejected by voters,” said a Clinton spokesman.

Mr. Clinton is deliberately trying to play bad cop against Mr. Obama, campaign officials say, and is keenly aware that a flash of anger or annoyance will draw even more media and public attention to his arguments. He will continue campaigning full-time for Mrs. Clinton after South Carolina in states with primaries on Feb. 5 where he is especially popular, like Arkansas, California and New York, they say.

The Clintons have come full circle: They are truly two-for-the-price-of-one in this presidential race. Mr. Clinton used that phrase when he first ran in 1992, only to back off after voters raised eyebrows, but now the Clintons are all but openly running together as a power couple ready to take office in 2009. Mrs. Clinton views him as a full partner, her advisers say, relying on him over the last few weeks to salvage and steer her campaign.

Yet some Democrats and political analysts see downsides in Mr. Clinton’s outsize role. Given his stature, the former president is potentially sowing deep divisions within a party that until now has been remarkably enthusiastic and unified about the 2008 election. He dispensed this week with any pretense that he was above it all.

“Bill Clinton seems to not be in his traditional mode,” said Jack Bass, an authority on Southern politics at the College of Charleston, who has observed Mr. Clinton for more than 30 years. “I’ve just never seen these negative emotions in public before. I know he has a temper, but this confrontational attitude with journalists, and the anger itself, is surprising to me.”

Mrs. Clinton, meanwhile, has stuck largely to the role of good cop this week, sounding more like a general election candidate as she attacked President Bush over the economy and mostly ignored Mr. Obama. In a speech on the economy on Thursday, she repeatedly attacked Mr. Bush but barely referred to her rival.

President Bush, she said, “has stayed at a comfortable cruising altitude, well above the realities of people’s lives, delegating responsibility to his advisers, hoping the buck would stop somewhere else.”

David Plouffe, Mr. Obama’s campaign manager, said in an interview Thursday that the Clintons were “throwing everything into winning South Carolina,” though he added that he was disturbed by “inaccurate” attacks on Mr. Obama. Mr. Plouffe cited a Clinton radio advertisement in South Carolina that suggested Mr. Obama liked Republican Party ideas in the 1990s. (The commercial stopped running Thursday; officials said it had been meant only for a 24-hour run.)

“This is not just a spouse or an average surrogate,” Mr. Plouffe said. “He’s a former president, and I think that comes with a little higher responsibility about what he says and how he says it.”

Mr. Clinton’s political strategist in 1992, James Carville, said that the jousting between the two camps had hardly turned toxic, and that the stakes of this election were too high to have a milquetoast campaign.

“This is not Williams College students electing a commencement speaker. This is a huge deal,” Mr. Carville said. “Does the president risk going overboard? Sure. But Obama runs a risk of being wussified.”

Mr. Clinton, meanwhile, has treaded onto far more combustible ground, like race. He says that people in his audiences “never” raise race, but several have. At a forum Wednesday in Kingstree, for example, a black pastor declared, “Black America is voting for Mr. Obama because he is black.” Mr. Clinton said he hoped that, for the country’s sake, that would not be the case. He also said that he thought no one would be voting against Mr. Obama or Mrs. Clinton on the base of race or sex.

And yet earlier in the day, in Charleston, he suggested that his wife might lose the primary because of race. “They are getting votes, to be sure, because of their race or gender,” Mr. Clinton said, “and that’s why people tell me that Hillary doesn’t have a chance to win here.”

It was not clear if Mr. Clinton was lowering expectations for her in South Carolina, but the polls have done that. Most show her losing the black vote overwhelmingly to Mr. Obama; the question for Mrs. Clinton will be the degree to which white voters turn out and the degree to which they vote for John Edwards in these 2008 Elections.

Huckabee in 08 Race is riding low on Resources

"We're there every day," Huckabee told MSNBC on Wednesday. "There are some news reports that are totally false -- I don't know who's fueling them -- that say that we are pulling out of Florida. And that's total nonsense."

Despite his lack of resources, Huckabee said he is ready to compete in Florida.

Huckabee's inability to turn his under-financed Iowa campaign, backed by a motivated network of evangelicals and home-schoolers, into a broad-based groundswell of support means he is short of campaign cash as he heads into the Florida Republican Primary January 29.

Mike Huckabee is working hard to keep his "scrappy little army" on the march, but with a disappointing second-place finish in South Carolina and in the middle of a resource-draining fight in Florida, the former Arkansas governor is having difficulties keeping his troops moving forward.

"And I think it's just one of those things that we're having to battle back, because we think Florida is in play," Huckabee said. "But we also know there are a whole lot of states out there."

On the campaign trail, Huckabee said he was comfortable with his position.

"Nobody thought we would even be in the game," Huckabee said Tuesday during an anti-abortion rally in Atlanta, Georgia. "People are talking about us in every national poll at either number one or number two. I'd call that a pretty good momentum for us.

"Our scrappy little army's doing pretty well out there on the battlefield," he added.

The signs the Huckabee campaign is starting to hurt for resources, however, are beginning to mount.

On Monday, the campaign announced it had grounded a chartered airplane it had provided to members of the press covering him, and Tuesday, Huckabee's campaign chairman Ed Rollins said Huckabee's top advisers are either working without pay or have left the campaign, according to The Associated Press.

"Most people are staying on," Rollins told the AP, but he said "a number of people, including myself," are forgoing their salaries to allow the campaign to buy television advertising.

Huckabee said the cutbacks just mean he is being prudent financially.

"The reason we cut some cost is because we've always operated in the black, we don't borrow money, unlike some of the other candidates who can write a big fat personal check and pay for everything -- I can't," Huckabee said Tuesday. "So what we recognized was that our primary goal right now is to get nimble, to get quick, to get where we can get from place to place as quickly as possible."

"I think a lot of folks would like to see the next president treat the taxpayers' money as frugally as we're treating campaign money," he said.

The departure of former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson from the Republican presidential race Tuesday may provide new momentum to Huckabee, but there is no guarantee.

With Thompson out, Huckabee is the only Southerner among the top-tier Republican candidates, but the social conservatives who were drawn to Thompson's advocacy of "traditional" social values are just as likely to back former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who has diligently courted social conservatives, as Huckabee, a former Baptist preacher.

"Fred Thompson really made an appeal to social conservatives, and those folks might naturally like Mike Huckabee," said Gloria Borger, CNN senior political analyst. "But Huckabee's campaign is running on fumes right now, and conservatives know it."

Thompson's decision to leave the race after his third place showing in Saturday's Republican primary in South Carolina may have been too late -- at least for Huckabee. Huckabee's loss to McCain, a senator from Arizona, in South Carolina was due to the social conservative vote being split between him and Thompson.

"It would have been helpful if he had done this before. Now if the rest of them will drop out, we'll really be happy," Huckabee joked Tuesday.

"I'm in much better shape than some of the candidates who've spent tens of millions of dollars, and they're way behind us," Huckabee said. "I'd much rather be where I am with the amount of resources we've had than where some of these guys are with the kind of resources they've spent."

While Huckabee supporters hope his message, which mixes conservative social values with economic populism, will spawn another surprise in Florida, the best bet for Huckabee may be for the Republican race to stay jumbled after the Florida primary, when the race moves to the the Super Tuesday contests that include less expensive Southern states such as Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee and his home state of Arkansas.

It's Trailing in Florida for Giuliani in 08

"I think we're cracking through, but we'll see," Giuliani said.

According to pollsters, there's not much leeway in Florida. Compared to the other early contests, Florida has a relatively small number of undecided voters.

"I'm not sure he can make up that kind of ground between now and Tuesday," Adair said.

Giuliani will have a chance to go head-to-head with his rivals in a debate Thursday night, where he's expected to be on the attack in attempt to show he's still viable.

Two new polls out Thursday show Giuliani competing for third in Florida -- tied with barely-present Mike Huckabee and behind John McCain and Mitt Romney.

Giuliani, who has finished in the single digits in every contest so far, largely skipped the early voting states to focus on Florida and the Super Tuesday states voting on February 5.

The former New York mayor once led in Florida and most national polls, but his plummeting numbers are causing some to question his strategy.

"Rudy has fallen like the Dow Jones industrial average," said Bill Adair, chief editor of the St. Petersburg Times. "What's happened is he gambled on Florida and put all his chips on Florida, and it's beginning to look like he gambled wrong."

"What he miscalculated on is McCain and Romney and Huckabee all come with some momentum into Florida because they won other states, and Rudy doesn't have momentum," he said.

So far, McCain has won New Hampshire and South Carolina; Romney took Wyoming, Nevada and Michigan; and Huckabee came in first in Iowa.

Giuliani has revamped his message for Floridians. Early in his campaign, he portrayed himself as America's mayor, calling attention to his leadership following the September 11, 2001, attacks.

Giuliani's poor finishes have cast doubt on his viability, Adair said on CNN's "American Morning."

"What he miscalculated on is McCain and Romney and Huckabee all come with some momentum into Florida because they won other states, and Rudy doesn't have momentum," he said.

So far, McCain has won New Hampshire and South Carolina; Romney took Wyoming, Nevada and Michigan; and Huckabee came in first in Iowa.

Giuliani has revamped his message for Floridians. Early in his campaign, he portrayed himself as America's mayor, calling attention to his leadership following the September 11, 2001, attacks.

"The very best things we could do is a major stimulus package that would lower taxes, and lower taxes dramatically," Giuliani said in Orlando, Florida, on Monday.

"And that's why I proposed the largest tax reduction in American history."

As concerns about the economy top the worries of Republican voters, Giuliani's launched an ad that touts his fiscal record as mayor, and he's been touting his plans to cut taxes.

Giuliani tells anyone who will listen -- he's the one with "proven leadership." There, his challenge is McCain of Arizona, who in a new Florida ad says, "There's no one more qualified to meet our national security threats. I've been dealing with these issues my entire adult life."

And Romney's hoping he can resonate with Floridians when it comes to the economy.

"I will go to Washington using the experience I have in the private sector -- in the real economy -- to strengthen our economy," the former Massachusetts governor said.

Giuliani on Wednesday told CNN's Larry King that he expects the polls to break his way this weekend.

But a break might not be enough. In a survey conducted for the Miami Herald, the St. Petersburg Times and Bay News 9, Giuliani only registers 15 percent among Republican primary voters. That puts him in a tie with Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor, who has spent little time in the state and has only a fraction of the organization Giuliani has there.

McCain and Romney are statistically tied for the top: McCain at 25 percent and Romney at 23 percent.

Giuliani also finds himself in third place in a new American Research Group poll with 16 percent, a statistical tie with Huckabee's 17 percent. McCain leads that poll with 29 percent and Romney is second with 22 percent.

The Miami Herald/St. Petersburg Times/Bay News 9 poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.1 percentage points, while the ARG poll's margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points. Both were conducted January 20-22.

Romney in 08 Elections Likes to Focus On Economy

"I know how America works because I spent my life in the real economy," says the man who made millions as a venture capitalist. "My plan will make America strong."

With recession fears growing, Mitt Romney's latest television ad is part resume, part resolve. And all reassurance.

The ad is the most visible element of Romney's strategy for the final week of the Florida primary. After a series of early campaign setbacks and one notable triumph, the former Massachusetts governor and aides have concluded that even in a state with relatively low unemployment, economic anxiety is his best hope for a victory that could finally set him on a path to the nomination.

"I won't need a briefing on how the economy works. I've been there. I know how the economy works," he told an audience on Wednesday to applause.

No mention of John McCain, Rudy Giuliani or Mike Huckabee, Republican presidential rivals whose campaign credentials lean heavily on government service. The point is unmistakable, all the same.

Not surprisingly, his Republican rivals are loath to let his claim go unchallenged.

"Of all the people running for president of the United States, I've had the most experience in turning around a government and turning around an economy," Giuliani said earlier this week. "I actually accomplished that in New York City," the former mayor added.

McCain's aides recently circulated a one-page compilation of reports, many from the media, that said Massachusetts state spending rose sharply and economic growth lagged during Romney's four years as governor. One recalled his refusal to take a position on President Bush's tax cuts in 2003.

On Saturday, he issued an economic stimulus plan totaling $233 billion, half again as big as anything President Bush and congressional leaders had been discussing.

Whatever his earlier position on tax cuts, Romney now preaches their virtue.

Its centerpiece is tax breaks for businesses investing in new equipment, an essential element, he says, for the creation of jobs.

It also included an individual income tax rebate of $400 to get money into the economy quickly, as well as a permanent reduction in the current 10 percent income tax bracket to 7.5 percent, designed for longer-term economic growth.

Under his plan, millions of lower-paid workers who pay payroll taxes but no income tax would not receive rebates. "I don't give it to people who don't pay taxes," he told one audience, which applauded in return. Aides also cited studies they said cast doubt on whether lower-income workers had used earlier rebates to stimulate the economy by purchasing consumer goods.

Romney's decision to emphasize his business background comes at a pivotal point in the battle for the nomination. Many conservatives have never warmed to him, wary of his previous support for abortion rights and gay rights. Huckabee's rise in Iowa and McCain's New Hampshire comeback made Romney odd-man out in the first two events of the year.

He rebounded smartly with a victory in the Michigan primary, where he campaigned on a promise to try and bring back the thousands of auto industry jobs that have been lost in recent years.

A Michigan native, he also stressed his personal ties to a struggling state with the highest unemployment in the country.

Without the same economic-based appeal, but without the personal connection, he stumbled the following week in high-unemployment South Carolina, where McCain won and Huckabee came in second.

"I do believe that among our citizens there's a growing concern about our economy as they see the dollar slide, the stock market slide," he said recently before listing more common concerns such as mortgage foreclosures and job losses.

And on Tuesday, as the markets braced for a sell-off that would send stock prices plummeting, he mixed in some professional investment advice. "If I were at home I'd be calling my broker and looking for opportunities to buy," he said.

Now Florida looms as the final single-state test before the campaign goes national with more than 20 primaries and caucuses on Feb. 5. With former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson out of the race, Huckabee out of money and Giuliani in desperate need of a victory, the winnowing process is under way.

Ironically, Florida presents Romney with a personal business decision to make.

He has poured $35 million or more of his own funds into the race. While he has outspent his rivals on television in Florida, until Wednesday he had not advertised in Miami, the state's most expensive media market. According to officials who spoke on condition of anonymity, aides have urged him to do so, and in recent days asked him to commit another $400,000 or so from his personal funds to finance the effort.

Instead, Romney's aides produced a new campaign backdrop within hours after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates and the stock market plunged on fears of recession.

"Economic Turnaround," it read.

Can McCain pull New York in 2008

In a sign that Mr. McCain was now willing to battle Mr. Giuliani, the former mayor of New York, in the city and state that gave rise to Mr. Giuliani’s political fortunes, Mr. McCain released a list of his New York supporters, among them Kissinger, the former secretary of state, and Peter Peterson, A co-founder of the Blackstone Group and a former secretary of commerce.

Also on the list was Michael Finnegan who was counsel to former Gov. George Pataki of New York. Mr. Pataki has not endorsed a candidate for president, and it is not clear that he will. Edward F. Cox, a son-in-law of President Richard Nixon and a senior partner at Patterson Belknap Webb & Tyler, Mr. Giuliani’s former law firm, is the chairman of Mr. McCain’s campaign in New York.

Mr. D’Amato had earlier endorsed Fred Thompson, but he switched to Mr. McCain, who is leading nationally in polls and gaining in New York, shortly before Mr. Thompson withdrew from the presidential race on Tuesday.

Mr. D’Amato stood in the St. Regis Library Room with former Senator Phil Gramm of Texas, another McCain supporter, and praised Mr. McCain before the start of the fund-raiser. “He will be, in my opinion, the strongest Republican candidate,” Mr. D’Amato said. “And for those of you who say, ‘Well, I disagree with him on one issue or another,’ if you want to win in November, John McCain, he’s the man.”

Mr. McCain said he was heartened by his frequent mentions on Monday night by the Democratic presidential candidates at a debate in South Carolina. “It’s pretty clear that they view me as their most formidable opponent,” he said, “and I agree with them.”

Mr. D’Amato has not had a close relationship with Mr. McCain. When Mr. D’Amato was in the Senate, people close to him said he was not fond of Mr. McCain’s signature causes, reining in campaign spending and pork barrel projects, two areas in which Mr. D’Amato excelled. But Mr. D’Amato has long had a difficult relationship with Mr. Giuliani, who angered him in 1994 when Mr. Giuliani endorsed Mario Cuomo a Democrat, for governor. Mr. D’Amato supported Mr. Pataki that year.

Any impact from Mr. McCain’s announcement that Mr. D’Amato was supporting him was somewhat undercut because the news had been reported Tuesday morning in The New York Post. On his campaign bus in Florida earlier Tuesday, Mr. McCain cast a suspicious eye on his benefactor, who has never been known to scurry out of the limelight.

“Thanks, Al,” Mr. McCain told reporters sardonically on the way to Fort Walton Beach from Pensacola. “That’s Al the Pal.”

Charles Black, Mr. McCain’s senior adviser, chimed in, “Can’t imagine who leaked that.” .

Mr. McCain said he was raising money on Mr. Giuliani’s home base for a simple reason. “It’s the Willie Sutton syndrome,” Mr. McCain said at a news conference in Pensacola, referring to the bank robber of the 1930s. “They asked him why he robbed banks, and he said it’s because that’s where the money is.”