Obama and McCain: The effect of economy on Polls & Todays Political Cartoon

So what do the polls say now? A little less hacker this week and a little more poll talk, things seem to be not so up in the air anymore. I thought that today's political cartoon, though old, was quite fitting. This cartoon is just a portrayal of the polling process and what it does to the candidates. So now let the cartoon be the introduction to the following, almost, report.

With four months to go until Election Day, the outcome is set in stone, barring some sort of miracle, some experts say.

Unfortunately for John McCain's chances, the economy is very weak, and almost everything else is going against him as well, which means Barack Obama will almost certainly be elected president.

That's the view of the overwhelming majority of social scientists who make it their business to peer into the future.

With four months to go until Election Day, the outcome is set in stone, barring some sort of miracle, they say.

The poor state of the economy, the casualties in Iraq, the unpopularity of George W. Bush, the current polling, and Obama's own political skills all point to the election of the Illinois Democrat in November, according to several political scientists, historians and economists who've had a pretty good track record in predicting past elections.

According to their models, it won't be close. Most of them are projecting a 52% to 48% victory for Obama, and that's with assumptions about the economy that are very kind to McCain.

Political scientists noted long ago that presidential elections are fairly predictable because they usually turn on several big issues: How's the economy doing? Is there an unpopular war? Has one party outlived its welcome at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue? Is one of the candidates a once-in-a-generation leader? Has the current administration done anything outstanding, or scandalous?

Obama it is!

What actually happens during a campaign -- the ads, the debates, the whistle-stop tours, the endorsements and the innuendo - don't really change the basic landscape that will determine who's in and who's out. In most of the models, it doesn't even matter much who the candidates are, any Democrat and Republican would do as well.

Of course, all these models assume that this year's campaign will be pretty much like those in the past. A major gaffe or stumble by Obama, or superb campaign by McCain could change the dynamics. So could outside events that alter the election landscape.

There's a whole cottage industry of experts who develop statistical models based on past elections and crunch the numbers to try to predict November's vote now. Almost all of the models say Obama will win.

This election could challenge the models' accuracy, for several reasons.

It's unclear how much Obama's race will influence voters; we've never had an African-American as a major candidate before.

And, for the first time since 1952, no incumbent president or vice president is running. McCain could expose flaws in the models if he's able to distance himself from Bush enough. Most of the models assume that the voters will reward or punish the incumbent party candidate in line with how the incumbent has performed.

And What the Models Are Saying

By Lichtman's reckoning, seven of the 13 keys are leaning against McCain, and that doesn't even count on Obama being considered charismatic, or on the economy falling into a recession this year. Since polls show the vast majority of voters think the economy is in a recession, we ought to hand Obama that key as well. Perceptions matter more than the technical declaration of a recession.

Yale economist Ray Fair has been at this game a long time too. His model is based on three economic variables, and now predicts McCain will get 48% of the votes. Fair's model had done a good job through the 1988 election, but has drifted further from the actual results in recent contests. You can plug in your own assumptions about the economy and make your own predictions on Fair's website.

The granddaddy of the prediction models is American University historian Allan Lichtman's 13 keys to the White House, which include factors such as the economy, foreign policy, scandals, social unrest and even the charisma of the candidates. No one's been elected president since 1860 without holding most of the keys to victory.

Economist Douglas Hibbs expanded on Fair's idea by including a war variable, which hurts the incumbent party if there are significant casualties in an undeclared war. Hibbs' "Bread and Peace" model explains Eisenhower's victory in 1952 and Nixon's win in 1968. The unpopular war could also be a factor in 2008, but the weak economy is a much bigger reason why the Republicans are likely to get just 48% of the votes this year.

"Support for the two major parties has solidified as the parties and their supporters have become increasingly divided along ideological lines," Abramowitz said. "Growing polarization may weaken the effects of short-term forces such as the economy and presidential approval." The approval rating of the president is one of three variables in Abramowitz's model.

Political scientist Alan Abramowitz of Emory University says his "Time for a Change" model is forecasting a Democratic landslide of about 54% to 46%. But Abramowitz doesn't think it'll be that much of a blowout because there are fewer true independents these days.

Romney in 08 Elections Likes to Focus On Economy

"I know how America works because I spent my life in the real economy," says the man who made millions as a venture capitalist. "My plan will make America strong."

With recession fears growing, Mitt Romney's latest television ad is part resume, part resolve. And all reassurance.

The ad is the most visible element of Romney's strategy for the final week of the Florida primary. After a series of early campaign setbacks and one notable triumph, the former Massachusetts governor and aides have concluded that even in a state with relatively low unemployment, economic anxiety is his best hope for a victory that could finally set him on a path to the nomination.

"I won't need a briefing on how the economy works. I've been there. I know how the economy works," he told an audience on Wednesday to applause.

No mention of John McCain, Rudy Giuliani or Mike Huckabee, Republican presidential rivals whose campaign credentials lean heavily on government service. The point is unmistakable, all the same.

Not surprisingly, his Republican rivals are loath to let his claim go unchallenged.

"Of all the people running for president of the United States, I've had the most experience in turning around a government and turning around an economy," Giuliani said earlier this week. "I actually accomplished that in New York City," the former mayor added.

McCain's aides recently circulated a one-page compilation of reports, many from the media, that said Massachusetts state spending rose sharply and economic growth lagged during Romney's four years as governor. One recalled his refusal to take a position on President Bush's tax cuts in 2003.

On Saturday, he issued an economic stimulus plan totaling $233 billion, half again as big as anything President Bush and congressional leaders had been discussing.

Whatever his earlier position on tax cuts, Romney now preaches their virtue.

Its centerpiece is tax breaks for businesses investing in new equipment, an essential element, he says, for the creation of jobs.

It also included an individual income tax rebate of $400 to get money into the economy quickly, as well as a permanent reduction in the current 10 percent income tax bracket to 7.5 percent, designed for longer-term economic growth.

Under his plan, millions of lower-paid workers who pay payroll taxes but no income tax would not receive rebates. "I don't give it to people who don't pay taxes," he told one audience, which applauded in return. Aides also cited studies they said cast doubt on whether lower-income workers had used earlier rebates to stimulate the economy by purchasing consumer goods.

Romney's decision to emphasize his business background comes at a pivotal point in the battle for the nomination. Many conservatives have never warmed to him, wary of his previous support for abortion rights and gay rights. Huckabee's rise in Iowa and McCain's New Hampshire comeback made Romney odd-man out in the first two events of the year.

He rebounded smartly with a victory in the Michigan primary, where he campaigned on a promise to try and bring back the thousands of auto industry jobs that have been lost in recent years.

A Michigan native, he also stressed his personal ties to a struggling state with the highest unemployment in the country.

Without the same economic-based appeal, but without the personal connection, he stumbled the following week in high-unemployment South Carolina, where McCain won and Huckabee came in second.

"I do believe that among our citizens there's a growing concern about our economy as they see the dollar slide, the stock market slide," he said recently before listing more common concerns such as mortgage foreclosures and job losses.

And on Tuesday, as the markets braced for a sell-off that would send stock prices plummeting, he mixed in some professional investment advice. "If I were at home I'd be calling my broker and looking for opportunities to buy," he said.

Now Florida looms as the final single-state test before the campaign goes national with more than 20 primaries and caucuses on Feb. 5. With former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson out of the race, Huckabee out of money and Giuliani in desperate need of a victory, the winnowing process is under way.

Ironically, Florida presents Romney with a personal business decision to make.

He has poured $35 million or more of his own funds into the race. While he has outspent his rivals on television in Florida, until Wednesday he had not advertised in Miami, the state's most expensive media market. According to officials who spoke on condition of anonymity, aides have urged him to do so, and in recent days asked him to commit another $400,000 or so from his personal funds to finance the effort.

Instead, Romney's aides produced a new campaign backdrop within hours after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates and the stock market plunged on fears of recession.

"Economic Turnaround," it read.